Qatar-India Chess Game: Explained

1. Backdrop of Indo-Qatar Relations

Over 800,000 Indians reside and work in Qatar, a nation that stands as the 7th largest exporter of oil to India, dispatching around 14,000 barrels daily. Qatar and the United States share a strategic alliance, with Qatar being recognized as a major non-NATO ally.

2. Map of Qatar

3. Complexity of International Diplomacy

Navigating the realm of international relations demands a meticulous approach rather than abrupt decisions. It’s a complex network of intertwined influences, hidden motives, and a constant dance of leverage and negotiations. Despite India’s military expenditure standing at $66 billion, a figure ten-fold that of Qatar’s, along with a defense force 20 times larger, reckless actions on the diplomatic front are not an option. The essence of diplomatic success hinges on the apt timing and locale of actions taken.

4. Unpacking Qatar’s Recent Stance

The recent scenario where Qatar accused eight former Indian navy officers of espionage for Israel raises eyebrows. The timing amidst the Israel-Palestine conflict and India’s apparent support for Israel hints at a possible attempt to tarnish India’s global image by portraying its citizens as Israeli spies. While this could be a tactic to sway India back to its prior pro-Palestine stance, the firm stance by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the issue, alongside India’s maintained support for a two-state solution, suggests a deviation is unlikely.

5. Geo-Political Dynamics at Play

Speculations are rife that Qatar might aim to obstruct the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel, Saudi Arabia’s anticipated participation, and India’s budding rapport with the emerging Israel-UAE-Saudi axis, which threatens Qatar’s clout in the Middle East. Additionally, Qatar might harbor reservations towards the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, especially given the exclusion of its allies like China, Turkey, and Pakistan.

6. India’s Assertive Measures

India’s stringent measures against Islamist funding from the Gulf via opaque NGOs and charities have possibly ruffled feathers in Qatar. The allegations of espionage and the ensuing death penalty verdict could be pressure maneuvers to coerce India into easing these restrictions.

7. Broader Implications and Speculations

The emerging narrative, further fueled by Justin Trudeau’s unfounded accusations and India’s stern diplomatic actions against Canada, possibly stirs anxiety among the Five Eyes alliance. There’s speculation that Qatar, being closely allied with the US, might be channeling a message. The prevailing deadlock, with the eight Indian individuals at its core, exudes the aura of a bargaining tactic, making it plausible that these individuals could serve as negotiation assets rather than facing execution.